Management Report
3. Sales and Earnings Forecast
The following forecasts for 2010 are based on the business performance described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities.
Bayer Group
We remain optimistic for 2010 and confirm our full-year forecast for the Group. We continue to target currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales growth of more than 5%. It remains our aim to increase EBITDA before special items to more than €7 billion.
Core earnings per share are still expected to improve by more than 15%. Our expectations are based on the exchange rates prevailing at the end of the third quarter of 2010.
HealthCare
For HealthCare we forecast a slight increase in sales after adjusting for portfolio and currency effects. We expect sales in the Pharmaceuticals segment to remain level year on year on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. In Consumer Health, however, we still plan to expand faster than the market. Regarding EBITDA before special items of HealthCare, we are still aiming to at least match the prior year. However, in view of the business performance so far and the appreciation of the euro, this target appears ambitious.
CropScience
In the currently positive market environment, we plan to grow fourth-quarter sales compared to the prior-year period on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. Against the background of the weak first half, we continue to anticipate that sales for the full year 2010 will come in slightly below the prior-year level. We expect a substantial year-on-year decline in EBITDA before special items.
MaterialScience
We remain optimistic about our MaterialScience business for the rest of the year. In this period, which is normally weaker for seasonal reasons, we expect that sales and EBITDA before special items will be well below the strong third quarter of 2010 but significantly above the fourth quarter of last year. For the full year 2010, we anticipate sales in the region of €10 billion and roughly threefold growth in EBITDA before special items to more than €1.3 billion. Overall, the MaterialScience business has recovered impressively and more quickly than expected. This means we will meet our original target of returning to the pre-crisis level at MaterialScience by 2012 much earlier than planned.